I have been watching the auction on and off for years and I have seen the gradual decline of Shelby prices, now I am keeping my shelby's so for me it's a moot point, but I am still shocked to see how down Shelby prices are. I just watched a 67 GT500 sell for 82k at barrett, I about fell out of my chair!
Is it over saturation ? just too many new Shelby's ? or ?
Interesting question..
Recently one brought 300k so I imagine there is more at play ....
Prices are strong right now.
Not familiar with the Barrett car but there's no shortage of reasons why a car can go for a price that some might consider is under the money.
The market is pretty efficient though.
Vern
Seen a lot of Shelby on eBay and other sites. Lots of them are still selling. Corrrect
Car will go fast!
Quote from: Vernon Estes on June 23, 2018, 08:53:20 PM
Prices are strong right now.
Not familiar with the Barrett car but there's no shortage of reasons why a car can go for a price that some might consider is under the money.
The market is pretty efficient though.
Vern
+1
I guess I am just remembering the higher prices from years back.. You guys are likely right..
What's weird to me as that Shelby prices have not gone up commensurate with other muscle/collector cars...The prices I am seeing for some more common vehicles iare crazy to me compared to even 5 years ago....Anyone have an idea why?
Quote from: 557 on June 24, 2018, 03:50:23 AM
What's weird to me as that Shelby prices have not gone up commensurate with other muscle/collector cars...The prices I am seeing for some more common vehicles iare crazy to me compared to even 5 years ago....Anyone have an idea why?
IMO... its because once a make and model hits six figures the purchasing audience gets smaller but someone can buy a nice 69 mustang resto-mod at half that. What I can't understand is why 68-70 shelby's prices are down but I do believe they will come up.
I also wouldn't use BJ auction as your gauge. They seem to be more and more catering to the restomod crowd. You can watch a restomoded to hell car go for several hundred thousand, then the real deal sell right behind it well under value. Case it point, the Eleanor yesterday went for almost $200k.
Quote from: 557 on June 24, 2018, 03:50:23 AM
What's weird to me as that Shelby prices have not gone up commensurate with other muscle/collector cars...The prices I am seeing for some more common vehicles iare crazy to me compared to even 5 years ago....Anyone have an idea why?
Guess that must have been what the mopar crowd were thinking 5 or 6 years ago when hemi car prices were tanking and Shelby prices (and air-cooled Porsche) were soaring. My observation is the overall collector car market is made up of many "sub markets" and they definitely don't move up & down in unison. I also think the '65 GT350 has somewhat detached from the other years and does not appear to go up & down with, for instance, the 68-70 cars. I think Special Ed made this observation here a few years ago and it appears to be on point.
Honestly ,from my observations, 66s seem almost undervalued for some reason...However ,excepting 65s the L.A. built cars seem to hold more value than the later cars ,not counting convertibles..But then I am biased for sure...But honestly I personally like every iteration of the lil critters!!!
My price is still the same. Don't come knocking on my door and telling me to sell you my car because you just saw one sell at your price. Your price isn't important. Mine is.
No tickie. No washie. No money, you walkie. Simple.
Quote from: 427hunter on June 23, 2018, 08:23:44 PM
I have been watching the auction on and off for years and I have seen the gradual decline of Shelby prices, now I am keeping my shelby's so for me it's a moot point, but I am still shocked to see how down Shelby prices are. I just watched a 67 GT500 sell for 82k at barrett, I about fell out of my chair!
Is it over saturation ? just too many new Shelby's ? or ?
Interesting question..
I thought the same thing, but was told by someone in the know that there was a MAJOR problem with that car in question, and everyone knew it. Prices aren't really down, in fact, I feel they are actually up for good cars.
Hemmings puts out a magazine called Muscle Machines monthly in the back there are results for recent auctions listed bread and butter Shelbys are routinely listed selling under the average selling price.
Quote from: Blackcar on June 24, 2018, 02:07:34 PM
Hemmings puts out a magazine called Muscle Machines monthly in the back there are results for recent auctions listed bread and butter Shelbys are routinely listed selling under the average selling price.
True, but they pick and choose which examples they want to share.
x 2 ;)
Quote from: shelbydoug on June 24, 2018, 11:55:01 AM
My price is still the same. Don't come knocking on my door and telling me to sell you my car because you just saw one sell at your price. Your price isn't important. Mine is.
No tickie. No washie. No money, you walkie. Simple.
+ 1
Interestingly enough, if you look on the B-J website, that particular car cannot be found. It has vanished so one must conclude that something was not quite right with the car.
Was it the nightmist car?
I think the car was Lot# 712. That Lot# no longer exists.
Not quite right=fake?Just trying to get the terminology straight.. :P
https://azure.barrett-jackson.com/Events/Event/Details/1967-SHELBY-GT500-219892
Lot #712 - This highly original Shelby is one of 2,048 fastbacks produced in 1967. It is powered by its original big-block 428ci V8 police interceptor engine with 10:1 compression, high-lift camshaft and a pair of 600 CFA Holley 4-barrel carburetors with progressive linkage and vacuum secondary. The engine resides in a professionally detailed engine bay and is backed by an automatic transmission. This Shelby comes equipped with progressive-rate springs, power front disc brakes, rear drum brakes, 10-spoke original aluminum wheels, factory oil and temperature Stewart Warner Gauges, original AM radio and many more original Shelby components.
VIN 67410F2U01724
Exterior Color DARK BLUE
Interior Color PARCHMENT
Cylinders 8
Engine Size 428CI
Transmission 3-SPEED AUTOMATIC
Lot 712 noted sold at $93,500 (includes buyers commission)
Love that color combination.
I know this has been said over an over... And I can't comment on that particular 67, as I haven't seen it in person...
BUT... A GREAT Shelby still commands a premium, both at public auctions and private sales 8)
It is my belief that the Shelby market is just fine.
Just my 2 cents.
I am looking to buy, so clearly prices are on the downtrend. Once I buy, or look to sell, then clearly prices will be fine, if not increasing. Applies to Shelby's as well. Too easy to describe the BJ auction as a fake, or must be fake, to explain away what seems like a low price. I am looking for a 67, must be 4 speed, but following prices where ever they show up. Comps matter.
Quote from: Vernon Estes on June 23, 2018, 08:53:20 PM
Prices are strong right now.
Not familiar with the Barrett car but there's no shortage of reasons why a car can go for a price that some might consider is under the money.
The market is pretty efficient though.
Vern
Agreed +1
Remember if you aren't a VIP at BJ, they don't put a lot of extra effort to get the maximum amount. You might also get a horrible time slot assigned.
I think they also only do no-reserve auctions. If there aren't the 2 "right guys" in the room, you might end up on the bad end of the transaction.
Quote from: 2112 on June 25, 2018, 12:18:57 AM
Remember if you aren't a VIP at BJ, they don't put a lot of extra effort to get the maximum amount. You might also get a horrible time slot assigned.
I think they also only do no-reserve auctions. If there aren't the 2 "right guys" in the room, you might end up on the bad end of the transaction.
Agree,all about the time slot
Quote from: GT350Lad on June 25, 2018, 05:40:21 AM
Quote from: 2112 on June 25, 2018, 12:18:57 AM
Remember if you aren't a VIP at BJ, they don't put a lot of extra effort to get the maximum amount. You might also get a horrible time slot assigned.
I think they also only do no-reserve auctions. If there aren't the 2 "right guys" in the room, you might end up on the bad end of the transaction.
Agree,all about the time slot. Why,because if it's later the high rollers have more free drinks in em?? 8)
Quote from: 557 on June 25, 2018, 08:47:14 AM
Why,because if it's later the high rollers have more free drinks in em?? 8)
Or they are somewhere else sleeping it off.
ok here comes the bad guy.....like Bob Dylan said maybe the times they are a changing....
Nah
Kinda immaterial to me as I've had the thing since I was an 18 yr. old punk and so for sentimental reasons I would never sell it.Weve grown old(er) together.But frankly as a practical matter it would almost be better if it was undervalued for insurance rate purposes.. ;)
No doubt, the market is changing. Some prices are getting stronger while others have settled.
The difference in price between great cars and cars with stories is getting wider.
Great cars continue to be MUCH harder to find than they were a decade ago, especially in the last few years. Generally when guys get ahold of a great car...they just dont sell it on again because they understand how hard it is to find good stuff anymore.
Of course, one can always make the assertion that people who comment on threads like this always have their own hidden motives. I do notice continually that guys who are in the market to buy might harp the doom and gloom stories while the guys with a garage full of cars might laud the market as being "on fire" and spiraling upwards in an out of control fashion.
As someone to makes his living with the cars that I am passionate for..I'm sort of incentive-ized to not say anything on a public forum. If I say the market is strong, those who I want to buy cars from might price them more aggressively to me. If I the market is weak, my potential purchasers might become more timid to paying for a particular car.
The truth is, though, I would give the market a clean bill of health right now. Prices arent increasing at a remarkable rate (they remain strong) but they certainly are not going down for most cars. Cars which are priced appropriately are selling quickly and at or near their all time highs in terms of monetary values. Ive sold 5 65 GT350s this year...only one needed to be publicly advertised and that was only because I had sold it to a client only a month before putting it up for sale again...after I found him a better car to have instead. That car then sold to a buyer in Sweden in a very short time period.
With that said, cars which are priced unreasonably are sitting. The owners will continue to send the checks off to the insurance company while the cars take up 200 sqft in their garage. Potential buyers for these cars continue to get more and more well educated. In result, selling cars for unreasonably high prices when the cars themselves are not remarkable in some respect is much more difficult then it used to be.
I'll re-emphasize over everything else in this post, though, that finding great cars is more difficult now than it has ever been before. Which is why most guys with great cars are not needing to publicly advertise them before they find new homes. If I come up with a really good, honest, 67 GT350 4 speed car...I have 3-5 guys right now who would buy the car it is priced appropriately and truly is a nice car. If someone isn't looking to totally gig the next guy on price and the car is a good one...it wont be for sale for long.
Like all other forms of collecting, quality will continue to matter to buyers more and more as the years go on. And quality will continue to be harder and harder to find.
Kind regards,
Vern
Quote from: 557 on June 25, 2018, 11:20:21 AM
Kinda immaterial to me as I've had the thing since I was an 18 yr. old punk and so for sentimental reasons I would never sell it.Weve grown old(er) together.But frankly as a practical matter it would almost be better if it was undervalued for insurance rate purposes.. ;)
+ 1 that is why we drive all our used cars.
we bought them when they weren't popular, we bought them because we liked them...see down below at the bottom, what did CS say.....
Quote from: Richstang on June 24, 2018, 07:41:00 PM
https://azure.barrett-jackson.com/Events/Event/Details/1967-SHELBY-GT500-219892
Lot #712 - This highly original Shelby is one of 2,048 fastbacks produced in 1967. It is powered by its original big-block 428ci V8 police interceptor engine with 10:1 compression, high-lift camshaft and a pair of 600 CFA Holley 4-barrel carburetors with progressive linkage and vacuum secondary. The engine resides in a professionally detailed engine bay and is backed by an automatic transmission. This Shelby comes equipped with progressive-rate springs, power front disc brakes, rear drum brakes, 10-spoke original aluminum wheels, factory oil and temperature Stewart Warner Gauges, original AM radio and many more original Shelby components.
VIN 67410F2U01724
Exterior Color DARK BLUE
Interior Color PARCHMENT
Cylinders 8
Engine Size 428CI
Transmission 3-SPEED AUTOMATIC
Lot 712 noted sold at $93,500 (includes buyers commission)
(http://www.saacforum.com/gallery/196-250618121015.jpeg)
Quote from: vtgt500 on June 25, 2018, 12:03:17 PM
Quote from: 557 on June 25, 2018, 11:20:21 AM
Kinda immaterial to me as I've had the thing since I was an 18 yr. old punk and so for sentimental reasons I would never sell it.Weve grown old(er) together.But frankly as a practical matter it would almost be better if it was undervalued for insurance rate purposes.. ;)
Mirrors my situation. Have had my rust free, low mileage, GT500 since 19 years old. for 41 years I've fawned over every stitch, nut and bolt to make it as perfect as possible, (In my eyes.) Very rarely shown in the last 15 years and now a man cave fixture. Certain there are 100s like it, out of circulation and unregistered. Through a network of acquaintances have been offered profoundly stupid money for it. My refusal to sell has upped the market for everyone else a tiny bit. Suspect many of those offered for sale bring little joy to their owners for the most likely reasons.
. Well my deal is a bit different as my car is far,far from perfect(but I do know exactly every little thing that is wrong with it)and I drive the living crap out of it weekly when I am around it...However I am very protective of it in my own way...If anything bad happens to it it had better be at my own hands,or there will be SERIOUS consequences.....And,no I am not kidding!!Just shows there is more than one way to love a car.... ;D
Quote from: Vernon Estes on June 25, 2018, 11:43:19 AM
No doubt, the market is changing. Some prices are getting stronger while others have settled.
The difference in price between great cars and cars with stories is getting wider.
Great cars continue to be MUCH harder to find than they were a decade ago, especially in the last few years. Generally when guys get ahold of a great car...they just dont sell it on again because they understand how hard it is to find good stuff anymore.
Of course, one can always make the assertion that people who comment on threads like this always have their own hidden motives. I do notice continually that guys who are in the market to buy might harp the doom and gloom stories while the guys with a garage full of cars might laud the market as being "on fire" and spiraling upwards in an out of control fashion.
As someone to makes his living with the cars that I am passionate for..I'm sort of incentive-ized to not say anything on a public forum. If I say the market is strong, those who I want to buy cars from might price them more aggressively to me. If I the market is weak, my potential purchasers might become more timid to paying for a particular car.
The truth is, though, I would give the market a clean bill of health right now. Prices arent increasing at a remarkable rate (they remain strong) but they certainly are not going down for most cars. Cars which are priced appropriately are selling quickly and at or near their all time highs in terms of monetary values. Ive sold 5 65 GT350s this year...only one needed to be publicly advertised and that was only because I had sold it to a client only a month before putting it up for sale again...after I found him a better car to have instead. That car then sold to a buyer in Sweden in a very short time period.
With that said, cars which are priced unreasonably are sitting. The owners will continue to send the checks off to the insurance company while the cars take up 200 sqft in their garage. Potential buyers for these cars continue to get more and more well educated. In result, selling cars for unreasonably high prices when the cars themselves are not remarkable in some respect is much more difficult then it used to be.
I'll re-emphasize over everything else in this post, though, that finding great cars is more difficult now than it has ever been before. Which is why most guys with great cars are not needing to publicly advertise them before they find new homes. If I come up with a really good, honest, 67 GT350 4 speed car...I have 3-5 guys right now who would buy the car it is priced appropriately and truly is a nice car. If someone isn't looking to totally gig the next guy on price and the car is a good one...it wont be for sale for long.
Like all other forms of collecting, quality will continue to matter to buyers more and more as the years go on. And quality will continue to be harder and harder to find.
Kind regards,
Vern
Well said, Vern! I would agree wholeheartedly.
+ 1
I guess it gets down to having the Shelby vehicle because you always dreamed of having it and want to enjoy it as it was meant to be driven or for investment value. Somewhere there is a balance for both personal values for owning to show or go or somewhere in between. 8)
I agree with most of the above. I bought my 66 Hertz 20 years ago because I loved the cars and always wanted one since I rode in one in high school about 1970, its my 3rd Shelby. None were bought for investments and the fact that they have risen in price is just a bonus . If the car drops to zero dollars tomorrow it would not be a great day, but I would still like the car as much as I did 20 years ago.
Dave
Seems like a lot of people here are "window dressing...."
At the last GAA classic car auction in Greensboro a fully restored 67 gt500 brittany blue sold for 93k, It literally made me sick on my stomach because I left before it went up thinking it would be in 140's...If I had known she would be sitting beside my other brittany blue as we speak..
(http://www.saacforum.com/gallery/1019-250618223037-15521527.jpeg)
Quote from: jgroce1985 on June 25, 2018, 10:32:54 PM
At the last GAA classic car auction in Greensboro a fully restored 67 gt500 brittany blue sold for 93k, It literally made me sick on my stomach because I left before it went up thinking it would be in 140's...If I had known she would be sitting beside my other brittany blue as we speak..
I'm guessing that was a no sale as it doesn't show up in past results on their site.
Quote from: 557 on June 25, 2018, 11:20:21 AM
Kinda immaterial to me as I've had the thing since I was an 18 yr. old punk and so for sentimental reasons I would never sell it.Weve grown old(er) together.But frankly as a practical matter it would almost be better if it was undervalued for insurance rate purposes.. ;)
Agree, often a car has a unique story that binds owner and car. They come into your life when timing is correct. Money is only one factor. 👍
These cars are coveted primarily by the guys who are baby boomers and I am in that group. A lot of baby boomers are now starting to move their money to retirement. Look at prices for 57 T -Birds which are now worth much less than the cost of the restoration. I think that Shelby prices are not going to tank but I also doubt that there is much serious appreciation left in these.
Just by comparison my 2005 Ford GT which cost $162K in 2005 is now probably a $300K car or better and there is a lot of buyers for them. Similarly my BMW Z-8 which I bought used 15 years ago for $85k is probably around $200K. My 1963 Split Window which is NCRS correct is probably $130K car all day long and I bought it five years ago for $130K and then spent $55K to get the paint/chrome right.
That is why I drive my 1967 GT500, keep it shiny, and keep myself prepared that it may only be a $100K car despite having paid a lot more than that for it.
Sorry it was 95k here's the lot number
(http://www.saacforum.com/gallery/1019-260618070842-15812299.jpeg)
I for one believe the prices will tank in the next 30 years. As a 33 year old business professional I love cars, but being raised in the "Southern Muscle Car Belt" makes me purchase more classic cars than newer cars. I can't help but notice at the local car shows I'm usually the only young guy there that actually owns a classic car. Due to television and big name auctions most people my age cannot afford or could care less about the car hobby. And the ones that can afford a car are moving into supercar territory. I can really see a change is coming when going to the local cars and coffee and everyone is either older or the younger crowd is gathered around the Lambo's and Ferrari's . It seems my generation will be the last real muscle car lovers.
The new generation that is up and coming seems to not even care about driving let alone getting an old classic car and restoring it. I couldn't tell you the last time I met an 18 year old that said my dream car is a 69 Camaro, 70 Hemi Cuda, a Shelby Mustang...Etc....When's the last time you met an 18 year old that can even drive a stick shift? I own a 66 Shelby clone, and a 2004 SVT cobra and in all seriousness I get more compliments on the 04 terminator then I do my 66. The last car show I attended a man probably in his late 20's parked his new GT350 beside my clone car and jokingly made a comment "I'll trade even", it just shows they have no idea what true value is on this hobby. I laughed and said you paid 30k more for yours then I did this one and he just had a dumb look on his face.
I tend to think that it is somewhat of an anomaly?
You can't plot a curve from just one data point. If you could, it would be easier to become a billionaire by trading one stock one time.
It can happen but is more of a fluke then anything else I think.
In the PAST, BJ was always exceptional at getting all of the serious buyers in the room at the right time. Timing is everything, which is probably a great reason as to not to risk anything on an auction with no reserve.
It would be better to talk to Vern when you were interested in selling your car. He might have a waiting list?
As far as prices tanking? Cobras haven't. A million or so for a street car definitely shows investment strength in the old portfolio.
Ok, I admit it - it was me! I'm truly sorry guys. I've lived by the motto "Buy high, sell low" all of my life and ever since I bought my first classic Shelby last October the market for those cars has tanked. :-[
I feel so bad about this. Really I do! I didn't want to admit this publicly, but I just can't live with the guilt any longer. :'(
There is hope though! Immediately after I sell my car (in 10, 20 or 30 years) the market will explode again and these cars will be more valuable than ever. So hang on to your car and wait it out. After all, I can't live forever!
There is also a subjective element.
Who would have thought vinyl records would still be around and popular?
Fashionwise, I have always related the '67 GT500 to Led Zeppelin.
If you're a Zep fan check out Greta Van Fleet.
- Phillip
Black Dog... Whole lotta Love... AAAAND a whole lotta HP from the mid 1960s is pure happiness. GET out and enjoy em and stop worrying about how much they have risin in price! :)
+ 1
Quote from: eric lipper on June 26, 2018, 07:01:41 AM
These cars are coveted primarily by the guys who are baby boomers and I am in that group. A lot of baby boomers are now starting to move their money to retirement. Look at prices for 57 T -Birds which are now worth much less than the cost of the restoration. I think that Shelby prices are not going to tank but I also doubt that there is much serious appreciation left in these.
Just by comparison my 2005 Ford GT which cost $162K in 2005 is now probably a $300K car or better and there is a lot of buyers for them. Similarly my BMW Z-8 which I bought used 15 years ago for $85k is probably around $200K. My 1963 Split Window which is NCRS correct is probably $130K car all day long and I bought it five years ago for $130K and then spent $55K to get the paint/chrome right.
That is why I drive my 1967 GT500, keep it shiny, and keep myself prepared that it may only be a $100K car despite having paid a lot more than that for it.
+ 1 just enjoy the ride
Quote from: jgroce1985 on June 26, 2018, 07:47:36 AM
I for one believe the prices will tank in the next 30 years. As a 33 year old business professional I love cars, but being raised in the "Southern Muscle Car Belt" makes me purchase more classic cars than newer cars. I can't help but notice at the local car shows I'm usually the only young guy there that actually owns a classic car. Due to television and big name auctions most people my age cannot afford or could care less about the car hobby. And the ones that can afford a car are moving into supercar territory. I can really see a change is coming when going to the local cars and coffee and everyone is either older or the younger crowd is gathered around the Lambo's and Ferrari's . It seems my generation will be the last real muscle car lovers.
The new generation that is up and coming seems to not even care about driving let alone getting an old classic car and restoring it. I couldn't tell you the last time I met an 18 year old that said my dream car is a 69 Camaro, 70 Hemi Cuda, a Shelby Mustang...Etc....When's the last time you met an 18 year old that can even drive a stick shift? I own a 66 Shelby clone, and a 2004 SVT cobra and in all seriousness I get more compliments on the 04 terminator then I do my 66. The last car show I attended a man probably in his late 20's parked his new GT350 beside my clone car and jokingly made a comment "I'll trade even", it just shows they have no idea what true value is on this hobby. I laughed and said you paid 30k more for yours then I did this one and he just had a dumb look on his face.
we dont sell them, we dont judge them, we just drive them. just someone elses opinion, enjoy the ride
FYI
Everyone is hoping that next Friday and Saturday, at Sotheby's auction in Monterey, California, the global asset class of collector cars will finally pull out of their ugly funk that nearly matches that during the Financial Crisis. "Hope" is the right word. Because reality has already curdled. Sotheby's brims with hope and flair:
Every August, the collector car world gathers to the Monterey Peninsula to see the magnificent roster of best-of-category and stunning rare automobiles that RM Sotheby's has to offer. For over 30 years, it has been the pinnacle of collector car auctions and is known for setting new auction benchmarks with outstanding sales results.
This asset class of beautiful machines - ranging in price from a 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO Berlinetta that sold for $38.1 million in 2014 to classic American muscle cars that can be bought for a few thousand dollars - is in trouble.
The index for collector car prices in the August report by Hagerty, which specializes in insuring vintage automobiles, fell 1.0 point to 157.42. The index is now down 8% year-over-year, and down 15%, or 28.4 points, from its all-time high in August 2015 (186).
Unlike stock market indices, the Hagerty Market Index is adjusted for inflation via the Consumer Price Index. So these are "real" changes in price levels.
The index has now fallen nearly 7 points below the level of August 2014. That was three years ago! In fact, the index is now at the lowest level since March 2014.
The chart below from Hagerty's August report shows how the index surged 83% on an inflation-adjusted basis from August 2009 to its peak in September 2015, and how it has since given up one-third of those gains. This is what the inflation and deflation of an asset bubble looks like (I added the dates):
US classic cars Hagerty market index 2017 08
Wolf Street
During the Financial-Crisis, the index peaked in April 2008 at 121.0, then plunged 16% (20 points) to bottom out in August 2009 at 101.39. By then, the liquidity from the Fed's zero-interest-rate policy and QE was washing across the world, and all asset prices began to soar.
The current drop of 15% from the peak in "real" terms is just below the 16% drop during the Financial Crisis. But the current 28.4-point-drop from the peak exceeds the 20-point drop during the Financial Crisis.
Concerning the current market, the Hagerty report added:
While the auction activity section of the rating had been kept strong by increases in the number of cars sold at auction so far this year, the trend hasn't continued and auction activity decreased for the second consecutive month thanks to a 2% drop in the number of cars sold compared to last month.
Private sales activity also experienced its second consecutive decrease, again thanks to a small drop in the average sale price as well as a small drop in the number of vehicles selling for above their insured values.
The number of owners expressing the belief that the values of their vehicles are increasing continues to gradually decline, and this is true for the owners of both mainstream and high-end vehicles. The drop is particularly pronounced, however, for owners of previously hot models like the Ferrari 308 and Ford GT.
For the second month in a row, expert sentiment dropped more than any other section.
The asset class of vintage automobiles was among the first bubbles to pop. This didn't happen in one fell swoop. It's a gradual process that started in the fall of 2015, and no one paid attention because it was just a minor down tick as so many before. But since then, it has become relentless and persistent, with plenty of ups and downs. Every expression of hope that it would end soon has been frustrated along the way.
And every day, there's still hope. For example, back in May, the Hagerty report commented that "prices have started to normalize." Since then, the index has continued its methodical decline.
This may be what asset class deflation looks like under the new regime. There will be talk of "plateauing," as is currently the case in commercial real estate. Then there will be talk of prices "normalizing," as is the case in collector cars. Then there will be talk of "buying opportunities," and so on. And there are ups and downs, and this may drag on for years.
But month after month, buyers of vintage cars become a little less enthusiastic and sellers a little more eager. Yet, unlike during the Financial Crisis, there are no signs of panic. The tsunami of liquidity is as powerful as before. Financial conditions are easier than they were a year ago. There's no forced selling. Just an orderly one-step-at-a-time asset bubble deflation.
Now the Fed is tightening. QE ended about the time the classic car bubble peaked. The Fed has raised its target for the federal funds rate four times so far in this cycle. It will likely announce the QE unwind in September and "another rate hike later this year," New York Fed president William Dudley told the AP. And the below-target inflation is not a problem. Read... Fed's Dudley Drops Bombshell: Low Inflation "Actually Might Be a Good Thing"
Read the original article on Wolf Street Copyright 2017
Not to beat a dead horse but if you bought it as an "investment" then you are missing (at least)half the fun IMHO...Then again my situation is kinda atypical as I paid 6k for my 67 gt500.(I think it's worth more NOW,warts and all) ;D
Quote from: kjspeed on June 26, 2018, 08:22:00 AM
Ok, I admit it - it was me! I'm truly sorry guys. I've lived by the motto "Buy high, sell low" all of my life and ever since I bought my first classic Shelby last October the market for those cars has tanked. :-[
I feel so bad about this. Really I do! I didn't want to admit this publicly, but I just can't live with the guilt any longer. :'(
There is hope though! Immediately after I sell my car (in 10, 20 or 30 years) the market will explode again and these cars will be more valuable than ever. So hang on to your car and wait it out. After all, I can't live forever!
I knew it! Thanks for the honesty though. I should know not to stand on line behind you at mess too?
You will get the last of the mashed potatoes and gravy. I'll wind up with s... on a shingle.
Those who purchased a Shelby primarily to make money :(
Those who purchased a Shelby to drive the wheels off it :)
Those who might be able to trade up or add a second (or third or fourth...) Shelby because they are more affordable ;D
People with extra money find all kinds of "things" to collect. I am sure there have been studies about why people do that. From rare coins,to rare stamps,to barbed wire to power line insulators,rocks,etc,etc. Why would Shelby owners be different? Take coin collectors for instance.....a US Lincoln one cent 1914-D has been a pretty good piece to have in your collection over the years. Never worth less than a penny,and depending on condition,worth hundreds of dollars,if authentic! Millions were made but no where near as many as other mints........and soon became a very desireable coin. Back in the '50's-'60's there were actually people that phonied that coin (hard to believe,huh?) Some dealers claimed there were more fake ones than real ones! Starting to sound familiar? Fast forward 50 years and a real 14D has been a pretty good investment,especially if you found one in your change. Even if you went to a coin dealer to buy a real one you most likely have not lost money. If you bought a fake you should hide it. Shop carefully for that early Shelby to prevent getting "gigged" by some low-life scum bucket,do your homework on the year you want to buy and jump in! You will always have an extra car to drive,even if you "lose" a little money. Most new cars are the worst investment and nobody seems to care. ???
Thanks for posting the article Tony- I may not make personal decisions based on it, or even any of these posts, but think its fun and educational to read different perspectives.
There seems to be a common theme in the collector car market decade over decade that the best quality/history etc will bring the most or be the most desirable. I wonder though that if a favored mark does drop in value overall then are some people will be less willing to spend their extra penny's to get their cars to the highest level because they know they will never see a return if they had to sell. In other words, if the mark is doing well "overall" then people may be willing to go over budget but on a down market people may pull back a little- just human nature. I wonder if that translates to more lower dollar restorations ahead (where many of the amazing and expensive restorations came out of a very good market run). I think about the Model A market (t-bird etc) and the generation that did some amazing restorations and spent lots of money on them back in the 80"s and the fact that "overall" the quality of Model A's available may be down now as a whole because the majority of those people aren't spending the big dollars to restore them now (may not even be driving or alive now).
The generational demand is a big and real influence. Could it mean that two generations of collectors ahead of us will have available to them a greater overall number of Shelby's that are on average cheaper and in not a good overall condition as available during the peak? Its all interesting to think about (understanding we all come at it with our own filters on as well). I wish I could drive my cars more but I find if I only have a few spare minutes I like to wrench on a car instead of driving. Others like dreaming about the car market, what restored means or date codes. To me its all as important as we want it to be as individuals and to each his (or her) own.
Quote from: cboss70 on June 26, 2018, 02:48:17 PM
Thanks for posting the article Tony- I may not make personal decisions based on it, or even any of these posts, but think its fun and educational to read different perspectives.
Interesting read, but keep in mind it was written about a year ago.
Quote from: Dizzy on June 26, 2018, 02:47:03 PM
Take coin collectors for instance.....a US Lincoln one cent 1914-D has been a pretty good piece to have in your collection over the years. Never worth less than a penny,and depending on condition,worth hundreds of dollars,if authentic! Millions were made but no where near as many as other mints........and soon became a very desireable coin.
But they do not come back as continuation minted coins to sell at nearly the original coin price. 8)
Quote from: jgroce1985 on June 25, 2018, 10:32:54 PM
At the last GAA classic car auction in Greensboro a fully restored 67 gt500 brittany blue sold for 93k, It literally made me sick on my stomach because I left before it went up thinking it would be in 140's...If I had known she would be sitting beside my other brittany blue as we speak..
(http://www.saacforum.com/gallery/1019-250618223037-15521527.jpeg)
This car sold cheap because it had very bad history. The buyer did his homework and backed out of the deal.
+ 1
Quote from: Don Johnston on June 26, 2018, 04:16:50 PM
Quote from: Dizzy on June 26, 2018, 02:47:03 PM
Take coin collectors for instance.....a US Lincoln one cent 1914-D has been a pretty good piece to have in your collection over the years. Never worth less than a penny,and depending on condition,worth hundreds of dollars,if authentic! Millions were made but no where near as many as other mints........and soon became a very desireable coin.
But they do not come back as continuation minted coins to sell at nearly the original coin price. 8)
Oh wow...glad to know ...I did hear in the crowd the day before something about a fire
Yeah well that and the non factory Lemans stripes..Yhats gotta take AT LEAST 30k off the price.... 8)
Quote from: jgroce1985 on June 26, 2018, 05:39:26 PM
Oh wow...glad to know ...I did hear in the crowd the day before something about a fire
please use the politically correct term if it was bbqed...
Quote from: GT350DAVE on June 26, 2018, 04:59:37 PM
Quote from: jgroce1985 on June 25, 2018, 10:32:54 PM
At the last GAA classic car auction in Greensboro a fully restored 67 gt500 brittany blue sold for 93k, It literally made me sick on my stomach because I left before it went up thinking it would be in 140's...If I had known she would be sitting beside my other brittany blue as we speak..
This car sold cheap because it had very bad history. The buyer did his homework and backed out of the deal.
So with that said does that negate a lot of the narrative on these last many pages? ;)
The only thing on that car that left Shelby American is the VIN plate. Come to think of it that might not have either!
Wow okay guys I need to know the story now ...What happen!
I wasn't following this one when it came to auction, but looking at the photo, any car that screams AUTHENTIC across the windshield raises a BIG red flag with me. It seems that this is another case of caveat emptor.
I also need to say that when I began my search for a 68 Shelby my first two steps were to join SAAC and this forum. Then I observed and asked questions. This forum is what united me with my car. Many people on this forum gave advice and help so I could have confidence when I pulled the trigger. I was looking for a matching numbers GT500 4-speed and I found several. Then I found the car I wanted and proceeded to research everything I could about it. Then I had to wait for it to NOT sell at auction so I could work out a deal with the owner. But it's now under my care and I couldn't be happier! It's not a GT500, it's not Highland Green, it's not a 4-speed, it doesn't have air and it doesn't have matching numbers. Heck, it doesn't even have an engine that was ever offered in a Shelby. But it's everything I ever wanted in a Shelby and it has history up the wazoo (with the documentation/trophies to prove it). The point being; because of the great folks who contribute to this forum I don't have buyers remorse. I know what I got and I know what else was out there when I bought it. I can sleep tonight. Thanks guys!
I follow a few basic cars for fun.
I use EBay sales on cars that allegedly sold as a mark.
Based on this,...in the last 5 years
55 Chevy
67/68 Camaro
67/68 Mustang
All up between 10-20%
For basic nice driver cars with V8 and stick.
Quote from: Bigfoot on June 26, 2018, 08:19:42 PM
I follow a few basic cars for fun.
I use EBay sales on cars that allegedly sold as a mark.
Based on this,...in the last 5 years
55 Chevy
67/68 Camaro
67/68 Mustang
All up between 10-20%
For basic nice driver cars with V8 and stick.
Other wise known as the BigFoot Report.
Quote from: BGlover67 on June 27, 2018, 12:28:27 AM
Quote from: Bigfoot on June 26, 2018, 08:19:42 PM
I follow a few basic cars for fun.
I use EBay sales on cars that allegedly sold as a mark.
Based on this,...in the last 5 years
55 Chevy
67/68 Camaro
67/68 Mustang
All up between 10-20%
For basic nice driver cars with V8 and stick.
Other wise known as the BigFoot Report.
Pretty spot on!
I am not sure about other models, but I know that a 4-speed '67 GT-350 value continues to rise annually.
^^
That too.
Fewer 350's made in 67 than 66
Fewer 67-350's than 67-500's
Quote from: BGlover67 on June 27, 2018, 12:28:27 AM
Quote from: Bigfoot on June 26, 2018, 08:19:42 PM
I follow a few basic cars for fun.
I use EBay sales on cars that allegedly sold as a mark.
Based on this,...in the last 5 years
55 Chevy
67/68 Camaro
67/68 Mustang
All up between 10-20%
For basic nice driver cars with V8 and stick.
Other wise known as the BigFoot Report.
Don't mess with Bigfoot. ;)
Quote from: Bigfoot on June 26, 2018, 08:19:42 PM
I follow a few basic cars for fun.
I use EBay sales on cars that allegedly sold as a mark.
Based on this,...in the last 5 years
55 Chevy
67/68 Camaro
67/68 Mustang
All up between 10-20%
For basic nice driver cars with V8 and stick.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Bigfoot,
I agree with the 3 you listed, but;
Something more is happening in the market>> IMO.
I never would have thought that prewar cars would increased again, but they are !
Granted a 6 cyl coupe mustang is more or less like a 4 door prewar car, always deals for ones that are the least desirable.
But even at that, the market on those cars has held their own. The adage that there is a seat for every ass, and an ass for every seat holds true.
The rational for years was that the older us old dogs got, a lessor amount of younger buyers would snatch them up.
The market is always on the move, up and down.
I see the 67 350 moving past the 66 350, always figured that would happen, as the 66 liked to ride along on the coat tails of the 1965.
I see future increases in the 68 or 69 Shelby conv . 350 or 500.
With respect,
John
Quote from: Harris Speedster on June 27, 2018, 10:19:41 AM
Quote from: Bigfoot on June 26, 2018, 08:19:42 PM
I follow a few basic cars for fun.
I use EBay sales on cars that allegedly sold as a mark.
Based on this,...in the last 5 years
55 Chevy
67/68 Camaro
67/68 Mustang
All up between 10-20%
For basic nice driver cars with V8 and stick.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Bigfoot,
I agree with the 3 you listed, but;
Something more is happening in the market>> IMO.
I never would have thought that prewar cars would increased again, but they are !
Granted a 6 cyl coupe mustang is more or less like a 4 door prewar car, always deals for ones that are the least desirable.
But even at that, the market on those cars has held their own. The adage that there is a seat for every ass, and an ass for every seat holds true.
The rational for years was that the older us old dogs got, a lessor amount of younger buyers would snatch them up.
The market is always on the move, up and down.
I see the 67 350 moving past the 66 350, always figured that would happen, as the 66 liked to ride along on the coat tails of the 1965.
I see future increases in the 68 or 69 Shelby conv . 350 or 500.
With respect,
John
You didn't buy that crystal ball from that guy on 63rd Street did you? He sold me a unicorn which turned out to be a Shetland Pony with a plastic dildo glued to its head.
You need to look out for stuff like that. I wish someone had warned me beforehand? ;D
Quote from: shelbydoug on June 27, 2018, 10:37:09 AM
Quote from: Harris Speedster on June 27, 2018, 10:19:41 AM
Quote from: Bigfoot on June 26, 2018, 08:19:42 PM
I follow a few basic cars for fun.
I use EBay sales on cars that allegedly sold as a mark.
Based on this,...in the last 5 years
55 Chevy
67/68 Camaro
67/68 Mustang
All up between 10-20%
For basic nice driver cars with V8 and stick.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Bigfoot,
I agree with the 3 you listed, but;
Something more is happening in the market>> IMO.
I never would have thought that prewar cars would increased again, but they are !
Granted a 6 cyl coupe mustang is more or less like a 4 door prewar car, always deals for ones that are the least desirable.
But even at that, the market on those cars has held their own. The adage that there is a seat for every ass, and an ass for every seat holds true.
The rational for years was that the older us old dogs got, a lessor amount of younger buyers would snatch them up.
The market is always on the move, up and down.
I see the 67 350 moving past the 66 350, always figured that would happen, as the 66 liked to ride along on the coat tails of the 1965.
I see future increases in the 68 or 69 Shelby conv . 350 or 500.
With respect,
John
You didn't buy that crystal ball from that guy on 63rd Street did you? He sold me a unicorn which turned out to be a Shetland Pony with a plastic dildo glued to its head.
You need to look out for stuff like that. I wish someone had warned me beforehand? ;D
. Are you familiar with a tune called"detachable penis"? Similar themes...Google it....
Quote from: 557 on June 27, 2018, 10:59:05 AM
Quote from: shelbydoug on June 27, 2018, 10:37:09 AM
Quote from: Harris Speedster on June 27, 2018, 10:19:41 AM
Quote from: Bigfoot on June 26, 2018, 08:19:42 PM
I follow a few basic cars for fun.
I use EBay sales on cars that allegedly sold as a mark.
Based on this,...in the last 5 years
55 Chevy
67/68 Camaro
67/68 Mustang
All up between 10-20%
For basic nice driver cars with V8 and stick.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Bigfoot,
I agree with the 3 you listed, but;
Something more is happening in the market>> IMO.
I never would have thought that prewar cars would increased again, but they are !
Granted a 6 cyl coupe mustang is more or less like a 4 door prewar car, always deals for ones that are the least desirable.
But even at that, the market on those cars has held their own. The adage that there is a seat for every ass, and an ass for every seat holds true.
The rational for years was that the older us old dogs got, a lessor amount of younger buyers would snatch them up.
The market is always on the move, up and down.
I see the 67 350 moving past the 66 350, always figured that would happen, as the 66 liked to ride along on the coat tails of the 1965.
I see future increases in the 68 or 69 Shelby conv . 350 or 500.
With respect,
John
You didn't buy that crystal ball from that guy on 63rd Street did you? He sold me a unicorn which turned out to be a Shetland Pony with a plastic dildo glued to its head.
You need to look out for stuff like that. I wish someone had warned me beforehand? ;D
. Are you familiar with a tune called"detachable penis"? Similar themes...Google it....
No. Never heard it, so that wouldn't have saved me.
Every time someone tries to tell me that subsequent generations are not valuing classic Shelby's as much as past owners have, I just think of the Boss 9. It's value sure doesn't seem to have been diminished by the changing tastes of all the younger folks getting involved in this hobby. Same holds true for original cobras. Blue chip collectibles will generally always stay that way because true beauty and design doesn't change according to generation. I can show a present day 18 year old a picture of Sophia Loren from 40 years ago, and ask if they think she is beautiful and Ill bet most would say absolutely.
Quote from: BGlover67 on June 27, 2018, 03:20:50 PM
Every time someone tries to tell me that subsequent generations are not valuing classic Shelby's as much as past owners have, I just think of the Boss 9. It's value sure doesn't seem to have been diminished by the changing tastes of all the younger folks getting involved in this hobby. Same holds true for original cobras. Blue chip collectibles will generally always stay that way because true beauty and design doesn't change according to generation. I can show a present day 18 year old a picture of Sophia Loren from 40 years ago, and ask if they think she is beautiful and Ill bet most would say absolutely.
Now THAT is pure truth! Same goes for my favorite Hurst Shift girl. 👍🏻
And I coulda bought a running boss9 in primer in 82 for 4500 but held out for a Shelby,whoops!!!
Quote from: 557 on June 27, 2018, 05:05:18 PM
And I coulda bought a running boss9 in primer in 82 for 4500 but held out for a Shelby,whoops!!!
I could've bought a show, matching numbers black B9 in 1987 for $12,500 :o
Couldn't do it with a child one year old and one on the way :(
BREAKING NEWS! BREAKING NEWS, After meeting with my own personal financial adviser I feel it is only fair to pass along his/her advice to buy ANY '68 Shelby GT 350 convertible! They project incredible gains in value over the next few months! This is not common BS,but ACTUAL bull shit! Public records show the POTENTIAL GROWTH for these EXTREMELY RARE cars has already been seen on TV! Internet records may show TREMENDOUS gains overnight! Most GM ,or MOPAR collectors have not been notified ,and WILL NOT be notified to protect SAAC members personal data! You must act within the next 30 years to protect you,and YOUR FAMILY from possible identity theft by possible interest in these EXTREMELY RARE vehicles! Even Carroll Shelby can NOT,or WILL NOT, be available to protect you! Please do NOT share this sensitive investment insight with ANY NATIONAL SPORTS figures or movie stars..... The market for these RARE Shelby cars is expected to EXPLODE near the time of the lunar eclipse ,and that is IMPOSSIBLE to stop! That is GUARANTEED. Out of the BILLIONS of vehicles produced since the beginning of TIME, there are only a very LIMITED number of REAL 1968 Shelby Cobras and even FEWER convertibles! Take heed and only share this information with friends or family,or the guy at the bar that is slightly out of touch with reality.
By the way,I will be offering my '68 350 'vert for sale at the 2068 Nationals for an undisclosed amount. See you there? :o
Quote from: 69mach351w on June 27, 2018, 05:16:30 PM
Quote from: 557 on June 27, 2018, 05:05:18 PM
And I coulda bought a running boss9 in primer in 82 for 4500 but held out for a Shelby,whoops!!!
I could've bought a show, matching numbers black B9 in 1987 for $12,500 :o
They look good in that color....
Quote from: BGlover67 on June 27, 2018, 03:20:50 PM
Every time someone tries to tell me that subsequent generations are not valuing classic Shelby's as much as past owners have, I just think of the Boss 9. It's value sure doesn't seem to have been diminished by the changing tastes of all the younger folks getting involved in this hobby. Same holds true for original cobras. Blue chip collectibles will generally always stay that way because true beauty and design doesn't change according to generation. I can show a present day 18 year old a picture of Sophia Loren from 40 years ago, and ask if they think she is beautiful and Ill bet most would say absolutely.
I think of the 1930's classics such as Duesenbergs, Mercedes 540Ks, etc., that have never been worth more and where the original generation of owners have not only "aged out" of the hobby but are long gone.
To all you guys that think the value of your shelby is dropping....call me I am a buyer!! :)
Quote from: sfm5 on June 27, 2018, 07:11:43 PM
Quote from: BGlover67 on June 27, 2018, 03:20:50 PM
Every time someone tries to tell me that subsequent generations are not valuing classic Shelby's as much as past owners have, I just think of the Boss 9. It's value sure doesn't seem to have been diminished by the changing tastes of all the younger folks getting involved in this hobby. Same holds true for original cobras. Blue chip collectibles will generally always stay that way because true beauty and design doesn't change according to generation. I can show a present day 18 year old a picture of Sophia Loren from 40 years ago, and ask if they think she is beautiful and Ill bet most would say absolutely.
I think of the 1930's classics such as Duesenbergs, Mercedes 540Ks, etc., that have never been worth more and where the original generation of owners have not only "aged out" of the hobby but are long gone.
There is a difference. There are classics that are classics for their time and there are cars that are classics for all time.
A classic for all time could be used today for everyday transportation. You are kind of stretching it to say that a Dusenberg could. I think that is part of the difference but not all of it.
Maybe the new generations will demand a re-issue of the Baker Electric, oops, I mean, continuation model. Get an original now while affordable.