What has happened to Shelby prices?

[GT350Lad]

Kinda immaterial to me as I've had the thing since I was an 18 yr. old punk and so for sentimental reasons I would never sell it.Weve grown old(er) together.But frankly as a practical matter it would almost be better if it was undervalued for insurance rate purposes..

Agree, often a car has a unique story that binds owner and car. They come into your life when timing is correct. Money is only one factor. 👍

[eric lipper]

These cars are coveted primarily by the guys who are baby boomers and I am in that group.  A lot of baby boomers are now starting to move their money to retirement.  Look at prices for 57 T -Birds which are now worth much less than the cost of the restoration.  I think that Shelby prices are not going to tank but I also doubt that there is much serious appreciation left in these. 

Just by comparison my 2005 Ford GT which cost $162K in 2005 is now probably a $300K car or better and there is a lot of buyers for them.  Similarly my BMW Z-8 which I bought used 15 years ago for $85k is probably around $200K.  My 1963 Split Window which is NCRS correct is probably $130K car all day long and I bought it five years ago for $130K and then spent $55K to get the paint/chrome right.

That is why I drive my 1967 GT500, keep it shiny, and keep myself prepared that it may only be a $100K car despite having paid a lot more than that for it.

[jgroce1985]

Sorry it was 95k here's the lot number

[jgroce1985]

       I for one believe the prices will tank in the next 30 years. As a 33 year old business professional I love cars, but being raised in the "Southern Muscle Car Belt" makes me purchase more classic cars than newer cars. I can't help but notice at the local car shows I'm usually the only young guy there that actually owns a classic car. Due to television and big name auctions most people my age cannot afford or could care less about the car hobby. And the ones that can afford a car are moving into supercar territory. I can really see a change is coming when going to the local cars and coffee and everyone is either older or the younger crowd is gathered around the Lambo's and Ferrari's . It seems my generation will be the last real muscle car lovers.
      The new generation that is up and coming seems to not even care about driving let alone getting an old classic car and restoring it. I couldn't tell you the last time I met an 18 year old that said my dream car is a 69 Camaro, 70 Hemi Cuda, a Shelby Mustang...Etc....When's the last time you met an 18 year old that can even drive a stick shift? I own a 66 Shelby clone, and a 2004 SVT cobra and in all seriousness I get more compliments on the 04 terminator then I do my 66. The last car show I attended a man probably in his late 20's parked his new GT350 beside my clone car and jokingly made a comment "I'll trade even", it just shows they have no idea what true value is on this hobby. I laughed and said you paid 30k more for yours then I did this one and he just had a dumb look on his face.

[shelbydoug]

I tend to think that it is somewhat of an anomaly?

You can't plot a curve from just one data point. If you could, it would be easier to become a billionaire by trading one stock one time.

It can happen but is more of a fluke then anything else I think.



In the PAST, BJ was always exceptional at getting all of the serious buyers in the room at the right time. Timing is everything, which is probably a great reason as to not to risk anything on an auction with no reserve.

It would be better to talk to Vern when you were interested in selling your car. He might have a waiting list?


As far as prices tanking? Cobras haven't. A million or so for a street car definitely shows investment strength in the old portfolio.

[kjspeed]

Ok, I admit it - it was me! I'm truly sorry guys. I've lived by the motto "Buy high, sell low" all of my life and ever since I bought my first classic Shelby last October the market for those cars has tanked. 

I feel so bad about this. Really I do! I didn't want to admit this publicly, but I just can't live with the guilt any longer. 

There is hope though! Immediately after I sell my car (in 10, 20 or 30 years) the market will explode again and these cars will be more valuable than ever. So hang on to your car and wait it out. After all, I can't live forever!

[propayne]

There is also a subjective element.

Who would have thought vinyl records would still be around and popular?

Fashionwise, I have always related the '67 GT500 to Led Zeppelin.

If you're a Zep fan check out Greta Van Fleet.

- Phillip

[427heaven]

Black Dog... Whole lotta Love... AAAAND a whole lotta HP from the mid 1960s is pure happiness. GET out and enjoy em and stop worrying about how much they have risin in price!

[FL SAAC]

+ 1

These cars are coveted primarily by the guys who are baby boomers and I am in that group.  A lot of baby boomers are now starting to move their money to retirement.  Look at prices for 57 T -Birds which are now worth much less than the cost of the restoration.  I think that Shelby prices are not going to tank but I also doubt that there is much serious appreciation left in these. 

Just by comparison my 2005 Ford GT which cost $162K in 2005 is now probably a $300K car or better and there is a lot of buyers for them.  Similarly my BMW Z-8 which I bought used 15 years ago for $85k is probably around $200K.  My 1963 Split Window which is NCRS correct is probably $130K car all day long and I bought it five years ago for $130K and then spent $55K to get the paint/chrome right.

That is why I drive my 1967 GT500, keep it shiny, and keep myself prepared that it may only be a $100K car despite having paid a lot more than that for it.

[FL SAAC]

+ 1 just enjoy the ride

       I for one believe the prices will tank in the next 30 years. As a 33 year old business professional I love cars, but being raised in the "Southern Muscle Car Belt" makes me purchase more classic cars than newer cars. I can't help but notice at the local car shows I'm usually the only young guy there that actually owns a classic car. Due to television and big name auctions most people my age cannot afford or could care less about the car hobby. And the ones that can afford a car are moving into supercar territory. I can really see a change is coming when going to the local cars and coffee and everyone is either older or the younger crowd is gathered around the Lambo's and Ferrari's . It seems my generation will be the last real muscle car lovers.
      The new generation that is up and coming seems to not even care about driving let alone getting an old classic car and restoring it. I couldn't tell you the last time I met an 18 year old that said my dream car is a 69 Camaro, 70 Hemi Cuda, a Shelby Mustang...Etc....When's the last time you met an 18 year old that can even drive a stick shift? I own a 66 Shelby clone, and a 2004 SVT cobra and in all seriousness I get more compliments on the 04 terminator then I do my 66. The last car show I attended a man probably in his late 20's parked his new GT350 beside my clone car and jokingly made a comment "I'll trade even", it just shows they have no idea what true value is on this hobby. I laughed and said you paid 30k more for yours then I did this one and he just had a dumb look on his face.

[FL SAAC]

we dont sell them, we dont judge them, we just drive them. just someone elses opinion, enjoy the ride
FYI

Everyone is hoping that next Friday and Saturday, at Sotheby's auction in Monterey, California, the global asset class of collector cars will finally pull out of their ugly funk that nearly matches that during the Financial Crisis. "Hope" is the right word. Because reality has already curdled. Sotheby's brims with hope and flair:

Every August, the collector car world gathers to the Monterey Peninsula to see the magnificent roster of best-of-category and stunning rare automobiles that RM Sotheby's has to offer. For over 30 years, it has been the pinnacle of collector car auctions and is known for setting new auction benchmarks with outstanding sales results.
This asset class of beautiful machines - ranging in price from a 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO Berlinetta that sold for $38.1 million in 2014 to classic American muscle cars that can be bought for a few thousand dollars - is in trouble.

The index for collector car prices in the August report by Hagerty, which specializes in insuring vintage automobiles, fell 1.0 point to 157.42. The index is now down 8% year-over-year, and down 15%, or 28.4 points, from its all-time high in August 2015 (186).

Unlike stock market indices, the Hagerty Market Index is adjusted for inflation via the Consumer Price Index. So these are "real" changes in price levels.

The index has now fallen nearly 7 points below the level of August 2014. That was three years ago! In fact, the index is now at the lowest level since March 2014.

The chart below from Hagerty's August report shows how the index surged 83% on an inflation-adjusted basis from August 2009 to its peak in September 2015, and how it has since given up one-third of those gains. This is what the inflation and deflation of an asset bubble looks like (I added the dates):

US classic cars Hagerty market index 2017 08
Wolf Street
During the Financial-Crisis, the index peaked in April 2008 at 121.0, then plunged 16% (20 points) to bottom out in August 2009 at 101.39. By then, the liquidity from the Fed's zero-interest-rate policy and QE was washing across the world, and all asset prices began to soar.

The current drop of 15% from the peak in "real" terms is just below the 16% drop during the Financial Crisis. But the current 28.4-point-drop from the peak exceeds the 20-point drop during the Financial Crisis.

Concerning the current market, the Hagerty report added:

While the auction activity section of the rating had been kept strong by increases in the number of cars sold at auction so far this year, the trend hasn't continued and auction activity decreased for the second consecutive month thanks to a 2% drop in the number of cars sold compared to last month.
Private sales activity also experienced its second consecutive decrease, again thanks to a small drop in the average sale price as well as a small drop in the number of vehicles selling for above their insured values.
The number of owners expressing the belief that the values of their vehicles are increasing continues to gradually decline, and this is true for the owners of both mainstream and high-end vehicles. The drop is particularly pronounced, however, for owners of previously hot models like the Ferrari 308 and Ford GT.
For the second month in a row, expert sentiment dropped more than any other section.
The asset class of vintage automobiles was among the first bubbles to pop. This didn't happen in one fell swoop. It's a gradual process that started in the fall of 2015, and no one paid attention because it was just a minor down tick as so many before. But since then, it has become relentless and persistent, with plenty of ups and downs. Every expression of hope that it would end soon has been frustrated along the way.

And every day, there's still hope. For example, back in May, the Hagerty report commented that "prices have started to normalize." Since then, the index has continued its methodical decline.

This may be what asset class deflation looks like under the new regime. There will be talk of "plateauing," as is currently the case in commercial real estate. Then there will be talk of prices "normalizing," as is the case in collector cars. Then there will be talk of "buying opportunities," and so on. And there are ups and downs, and this may drag on for years.

But month after month, buyers of vintage cars become a little less enthusiastic and sellers a little more eager. Yet, unlike during the Financial Crisis, there are no signs of panic. The tsunami of liquidity is as powerful as before. Financial conditions are easier than they were a year ago. There's no forced selling. Just an orderly one-step-at-a-time asset bubble deflation.

Now the Fed is tightening. QE ended about the time the classic car bubble peaked. The Fed has raised its target for the federal funds rate four times so far in this cycle. It will likely announce the QE unwind in September and "another rate hike later this year," New York Fed president William Dudley told the AP. And the below-target inflation is not a problem. Read... Fed's Dudley Drops Bombshell: Low Inflation "Actually Might Be a Good Thing"

Read the original article on Wolf Street Copyright 2017

[557]

Not to beat a dead horse but if you bought it as an "investment" then you are missing (at least)half the fun IMHO...Then again my situation is kinda atypical as I paid 6k for my 67 gt500.(I think it's worth more NOW,warts and all)

[shelbydoug]

Ok, I admit it - it was me! I'm truly sorry guys. I've lived by the motto "Buy high, sell low" all of my life and ever since I bought my first classic Shelby last October the market for those cars has tanked. 

I feel so bad about this. Really I do! I didn't want to admit this publicly, but I just can't live with the guilt any longer. 

There is hope though! Immediately after I sell my car (in 10, 20 or 30 years) the market will explode again and these cars will be more valuable than ever. So hang on to your car and wait it out. After all, I can't live forever!

I knew it! Thanks for the honesty though. I should know not to stand on line behind you at mess too?

You will get the last of the mashed potatoes and gravy. I'll wind up with s... on a shingle.

[kjspeed]

Those who purchased a Shelby primarily to make money   

Those who purchased a Shelby to drive the wheels off it   

Those who might be able to trade up or add a second (or third or fourth...) Shelby because they are more affordable   

[Dizzy]

People with extra money find all kinds of "things" to collect. I am sure there have been studies about why people do that. From rare coins,to rare stamps,to barbed wire to power line insulators,rocks,etc,etc. Why would Shelby owners be different? Take coin collectors for instance.....a US Lincoln one cent 1914-D has been a pretty good piece to have in your collection over the years. Never worth less than a penny,and depending on condition,worth hundreds of dollars,if authentic! Millions were made but no where near as many as other mints........and soon became a very desireable coin. Back in the '50's-'60's there were actually people that phonied that coin (hard to believe,huh?) Some dealers claimed there were more fake ones than real ones! Starting to sound familiar? Fast forward 50 years and a real 14D has been a pretty good investment,especially if you found one in your change. Even if you went to a coin dealer to buy a real one you most likely have not lost money. If you bought a fake you should hide it. Shop carefully for that early Shelby to prevent getting "gigged" by some low-life scum bucket,do your homework on the year you want to buy and jump in! You will always have an extra car to drive,even if you "lose" a little money. Most new cars are the worst investment and nobody seems to care.